Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Connect the Dots

More 8June11: It's even worse than you think
Gary Locke

International observers are seeing the growing outlines of a world without central leadership or guidance. The US seems unable to find its way out of its stagnant economic condition, and there is no other nation ready, able, and willing to step up to the plate.

Russia's corrupt leadership combined with its one-trick-pony economy simply cannot keep up with the emerging BRICs. Russia's shrinking core population is sick, and morally exhausted. The huge landmass of riches is growing harder to hold.

China's "economic miracle" is in reality a huge house of cards waiting to collapse. Inflation in China is just a tiny hint of the dangerous undercurrent of instability waiting to break into chaotic tumult.

Japan's recent earthquake and tsunami triggered severe economic and social upheaval, which on top of Japan's shrinking demographic promises continued economic problems for the island archipelago as a whole.

The third world is still the third world for many reasons, most of which are not politically correct to mention. It is important to understand that the population of much of the third world is several multiples of the natural carrying capacity of the regions -- without outside aid and assistance. If something happens to the world economy, the death toll in third world nations is apt to be distressingly high.

What about the erstwhile hegemon and superpower of the world, the US? Under President Obama, US economic prospects are looking worse and worse. Americans suspect that there is something wrong with the way that President Obama is handling the US economy. But with the dumbing down of schools and other dulling effects of demographic change on the US population, most Americans lack the ability to pinpoint exactly where Obama is going wrong, economically.

Stimulus after stimulus have failed to achieve anything other than to create an addiction among investors for more stimulus. As QE2 fades, investors look ahead to QE3 for another junky's fix.

Meanwhile, among the US more affluent, educated, and productive classes, birthrates are plummeting. This falling fertility not only reflects a greater affluence and hedonistic tendency, but it also reflects a certain lack of faith in national leadership and the future.

The visible human world is built on psychological whims and beliefs. If those whims and beliefs shift, the human world will shake. Your best bet is to pay attention to basics. Consider instituting triage as appropriate for your personal circumstances.

The financial contraction of 2008 was not a one-off event from which we are all recovering. Almost none of the fundamentals are getting better, and many are getting worse. As a result, 2008 was only a prelude to a worsening future, as long as the twin disasters of debt and demographics continue along their inexorable paths of destruction. Energy starvation due to faux environmentalism, and widespread indoctrination of lobotomising politically correct dogma via the educational system is not helping, either.

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