Friday, October 15, 2010

If Peak Oil Is Real, Why Does OPEC Need Production Discipline?

The cartel's 12 oil ministers decided in Vienna to neither expand output, in order not to add to current high stock levels, nor to curb supply so as not to hamper the global economic recovery with higher oil prices. _Source
Some OPEC members want to tighten the production quota to artificially drive the cost of oil up to $100 a barrel -- to compensate for the shrinking of the Obama-dolla.
The 13 percent decline in the Dollar Index since June has led some OPEC members to call for oil to rise to $100 a barrel.

The U.S. currency’s weakness means the “real price” of oil is about $20 less than current levels, Venezuelan Energy and Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said after yesterday’s meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna. The group, which accounts for 40 percent of global crude output, left targets unchanged and called for greater adherence to quotas, which are being exceeded by a supertanker load a day. _Bloomberg
Honestly, if OPEC really believed the world's supply was more than 5 years past peak -- and that oil is soon to naturally shoot up past $100 to $150 a barrel and higher -- why would there be a question about production discipline? They would be holding on to as much oil as possible, so as to get the much higher prices in the near future. Clearly, peak oil by natural causes is very unlikely.

Political peak oil -- phony peak oil driven by carbon hysteria, faux environmental legislation, and official cartel action -- is another matter entirely. Political peak oil could happen at any moment, and has nothing to do with oil and other hydrocarbon reserves in the ground, or with the ability of oil & gas companies to profitably extract these reserves.

Meanwhile, Iran and Iraq's vast oil reserves keep on growing. Likewise, Saudi Arabia has big plans for using powerful new technologies to reach even deeper into the monster Ghawar oil field to increase production even higher if necessary.

Up until now, drillers have been able to extract around 30% of oil from oil fields. But a wide range of marvelous new technologies promises to extend the yields by as much as 10% to 20% more of the initial reserves. Even old fashioned CO2 injection can add significantly to production of tired, depleted fields.

The Earth has barely been surveyed for hydrocarbon resources. The incredible recent global discoveries in shale oils and gases is good evidence for that. And as powerful new technologies for oil, gas, coal and other hydrocarbon exploration come into use, expect vast new discoveries of all kinds.

Watch and learn.

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