When La Nina Comes Callin': Long Range US Forecast

Accuweather
Long-range weather forecasting is still an experimental art form, but some US and UK practitioners are getting better at it (Not the UK Met). Here is what the long range gnomes at Accuweather have to say:

The current La Niña is still going strong and expected to persist through at least the spring. AccuWeather.com long range forecasters think it could even last well into the summer or early fall.

So what does that mean in terms of weather for the coming months? What can people expect for the rest of winter and the upcoming spring? Will there be a continuation of non-typical extremes like we've seen over the last few months?

What to Expect in Coming Months

In short, AccuWeather.com Expert Long Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok says that we can expect to see more of the non-typical La Niñna events in parts of the country in coming weeks.

For example, he expects colder-than-normal conditions to continue affecting the East through the end of January and possibly the first half of February. In contrast to December, which was coldest compared to normal in the Southeast, the upcoming cold in the East is expected to be most extreme in the Northeast.

A blast of cold air coming to the Northeast the weekend of Jan. 22-23 is forecast to be especially brutal. A healthy snowpack covering much of the East now will help make upcoming cold outbreaks even more intense.

...In the Southeast, Pastelok thinks the cold that continues in coming weeks will be significant enough to make temperatures for the entire winter average out below normal for much of the region. This would be an impressive feat, considering that La Niña winters in the Southeast are typically warmer than normal.

In general, Pastelok also expects a continuation of stormy weather from the Tennessee Valley into the mid-Atlantic for much of the rest of the season. Storms that track through this zone can vary between producing snow, ice and heavy rain.

The bitter cold destined for the East will first blast through the Midwest. So more extreme cold is in store for people across that region as well.

...The Southwest started this winter off with cool temperatures but has recently experienced warming. That warmth is starting to spread eastward into Texas, and Pastelok expects most of the interior Southwest and Texas to stay warmer much of the rest of the winter.

Above-normal precipitation is expected for the Northwest for the rest of the season with higher-than-normal snowfall in the interior. Temperatures should average below normal for the rest of the season. _Accuweather

More on strong La Nina from Wattsupwiththat?!?

Weather-Making: Thunderstorms In Place of Desalinators

The Metro System scientists used ionisers to produce negatively charged particles ....

They have a natural tendency to attach to tiny specks of dust which are ever-present in the atmosphere in the desert-regions.

These are then carried up from the emitters by convection - upward currents of air generated by the heat release from sunlight as it hits the ground.

Once the dust particles reach the right height for cloud formation, the charges will attract water molecules floating in the air which then start to condense around them.

If there is sufficient moisture in the air, it induces billions of droplets to form which finally means cloud and rain. _DailyMail

DailyMail
Scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology have been fiddling with Abu Dhabi's weather. Using the negative-ion generators pictured above, the scientists have been successful in creating rainfal and thunderstorms in the Arabian summer months of July and August -- when rain rarely falls naturally.

Last June Metro Systems built five ionising sites each with 20 emitters which can send trillions of cloud-forming ions into the atmosphere.

Over four summer months the emitters were switched on when the required atmospheric level of humidity reached 30 per cent or more.

While the country's weather experts predicted no clouds or rain in the Al Ain region, rain fell on FIFTY-TWO occasions.

The project was monitored by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, one of the world's major centres for atmospheric physics.

Professor Hartmut Grassl, a former institute director, said: There are many applications. One is getting water into a dry area.

'Maybe this is a most important point for mankind.'

...Building an ionising system is about £7 million while a desalination plant would be £850 million and costs a lot more to run.

Some scientists are treating the results in Al Ain with caution because Abu Dhabi is a coastal state and can experience natural summer rainfall triggered by air picking up moisture from the warm ocean before dropping it on land.

But the number of times it rained in the region so soon after the ionisers were switched on has encouraged researchers.

Professor Peter Wilderer witnessed the experiments first hand and is backing the breakthrough. _DailyMail

Local and regional control of weather and climate has long been a goal of visionaries and utopians. An entire arsenal of weather devices will be needed, for dealing with the extremes of any season. In this case, the ability to trigger rainfall can substitute for more expensive desalination plants -- for freshwater. In other situations, seasonal weather might be modified to create ideal growing seasons for highly valued crops.

In this modern age of global warming cooling climate change, it's best to be prepared for anything.

Going Nowhere

It's winter alright and no one is going anywhere. There is so much snow outside, the entire town has just called it another day off. After the second big snowfall this week, even the sturdiest snow shoveling enthusiast might feel a tad overtaxed.

Perhaps it's time for a winter fairytale escape?

Special thanks to Susan for sharing the images of ice sculptures from the Fairbanks Ice Festival in 2008.